I did end up trying to flash another SD card with both RPi versions.
Neither worked. The Pi connects to my network and is pingable but the browser GUI doesn’t load and SSH claims I have the wrong password.
Then I popped the old SD card back (which should still at least boot the Umbrel OS) but … it does the same thing.
Tomorrow another SSD is coming (2tb version) and with the extra Pi4 sitting around, I plan to spin up another Umbrel on that from scratch, will redownload the blockchain, enter my recovery phrase, close my lightning channels if they haven’t already been forced closed, and look for an alternative node software.
Crazily enough I typed the recovery phrase into both Sparrow and Bluewallet and can’t recover the on-chain funds. Sparrow claims it’s not a valid phrase (edit: there’s more to the process to getting it working in Sparrow) and Bluewallet doesn’t load any txn history and shows a 0 sat balance.
This Lightning node had good ratings on Lightning Network Plus and had large channels to several prominent Bitcoin communities in Latin America and Africa.
Hoping Umbrel’s devs, if they are really still dedicated to Bitcoin, will soon wake up.